This is our second experiment with Myriada’s new prediction aggregator. Participants in Friday’s Markets Live session at 11am will be invited to contribute their considered estimates for the final US jobs report of 2014.
Non-farm payrolls are due to be announced at 1.30pm London Time / 8.30am New York, and the clunky old Bloomberg economists’ consensus says 230,000 new jobs were created in November, against 214,000 a month earlier. Read more
A curious report. Consensus was for 197k. But the unemployment rate has contracted sharply. At pixel, markets were mighty confused. In London the Footsie, having traded 75 points higher in anticipation of a strong print, quickly lost almost half its gain. In Chicago, equity index futures pointed to a flat opening on Wall Street.
Here are the main bits from the report: Read more
Chart via Carl Lantz of Credit Suisse. Read more
The post-winter slowdown that the US has experienced the past three years had been showing signs of re-emerging in 2013, but Friday’s employment report complicates the story.
The BLS announced that payrolls climbed by 165,000 in April, but perhaps more importantly the revisions to prior months revealed that February and March were better than originally thought, having created 114,000 more jobs than had been posted in the earlier reports. The February revisions brought the total for that month to an impressive 332,000. Read more
Another month, another payrolls number in the 150k range — except this one comes with big positive revisions to the prior two months. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly, but careful with this report, as it includes an updated population estimate in the household survey, and also the annual benchmarking in the establishment survey to reflect a new count of total jobs. Read the explanations at the bottom of the release for detail.
From the BLS: Read more
Consider all that has either influenced the US economy or at least made big headlines in the last two years — winter accelerations seemingly crashing into spring slowdowns; a debt ceiling debate coinciding with a debt downgrade; a supply chain disruption caused by the Japanese earthquake; commodity and gas price spikes; fiscal drag at both the federal and state levels; a dramatically evolving monetary policy framework; an election and fiscal cliff battle; a perpetual near-disaster in Europe and slowing emerging market growth.
In that light, the following line in today’s payrolls report is worth a quick remark: Read more
Very close to estimates and roughly in line with the prior two months. The highlights from the report:
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 155,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, food services and drinking places, construction, and manufacturing. Read more
A few notes on the report as we make our way through it:
— This sentence caught our eye: Read more
When is seasonally-adjusted not seasonal?
The first three months of the year were the warmest on record for the contiguous US, says NOAA (via Menzie Chinn). Read more
Another expectations-beating employment situation report, with the biggest news possibly in the last line of the release:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised from +203,000 to +223,000, and the change for January was revised from +243,000 to +284,000.
By Cardiff Garcia and Joseph Cotterill
Uncaptured seasonality effects or not, this is what a healthy employment report looks like. Read more
Warning: we start by rambling about a bunch of stuff that may not interest anyone besides methodology geeks. If you want to jump straight to how this morning’s BLS employment report might be affected by seasonality issues, scroll down to the next section in bold.
On the familiar list of challenges faced by the US economy last year were the reemergence of Europe as a perpetual near-disaster, the commodities price spike, supply chain disruptions from the Japanese earthquake, the S&P downgrade, and a remarkable streak of policy stupidity (budget showdown, debt ceiling debate, etc). Read more
Consensus expectations were for 9 per cent and 125,000.
But don’t be deceived by the eye-catching drop in the unemployment rate: this report was good but not great. Read more
An 80,000 rise in non-farm payrolls is disappointing, but something exorcised the devil from the report’s underlying details, which were better than hoped.
There were big upward revisions to the prior two months, with September now showing a gain of 158,000 and August, which originally came in flat with zero growth, now posting a gain of 104,000. The average duration of unemployment fell, and U-6, a broader measure that includes people marginally attached to the labour force and part-time workers, also declined. Read more
Sighs of relief all round as the non-farm payrolls report for September steps lightly over an expectations bar that was just inches above ground.
We’ll have a breakdown and further commentary during US Markets Live, but for now here’s the report itself: Read more
The fears were valid, it seems.
Nonfarm payrolls stayed exactly flat in August — a month in which the drumbeat of negative economic signals was amplified to piercing levels. Read more
Some reaction to better than expected non-farm July payroll numbers, following an August sell-off, from Reuters:
“Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief because the employment news was bad, but not terrible. The July data were a mixed bag. The non-farm payrolls figures were better than expected and the revision to the prior month was better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose. That’s why you’re seeing the S&P rallying. Read more
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release is likely to report that jobs rose 90,000 in June, up from the anaemic 54,000 posted in May, says Reuters from a survey of economists conducted last week. Jobless rates were expected to remain at 9.1 per cent. Bloomberg’s survey predicts 105,000 with a 9.1 per cent jobless rate, with forecasts in the estimates it collected ranging from 40,000 to 175,000. Falls in the cost of fuel likely made it cheaper to hire in June, with May’s shock deceleration chalked up to supply chain disruption from the Japanese earthquake, which has diminished.
Cue a big collective “ouch”.
The consensus was for a reading of around 150,000, following a dire week of US data releases. The unemployment rate is now at 9.1 per cent. Estimates for the last two months were also revised down: for March from +221,000 to +194,000 and for April from +244,000 to +232,000. Read more
by John McDermott and Cardiff Garcia
A risk-off day if ever there was one. Read more
Our takeaway from the April employment report is that its two surveys — of households and of establishments — finally converged a bit, as was probably inevitable.
For many months now, the household survey had been painting a much better jobs picture than the establishment survey, with total employment (measured in the household survey) well outpacing payrolls growth (from the establishments). Read more
Consensus had been for around 185,000, and there was a big upward revision for the February number, from 194,000 to 235,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to nine per cent.
We’ll be back with analysis in a bit, but for now here’s the release from the BLS: Read more
Non-Farm payrolls rose by 216,000 jobs in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Analysts had been expecting an increase of 190k jobs in the month. The unemployment rate came in at at 8.6 per cent, its lowest since March 2009. Read more
Just an idea, of course.
But it comes via JPMorgan’s Seamus Mac Gorain, and it’s part of a 12-page study covering more than a decade of intraday trading data around big economic releases. Read more
The consensus is pegging 180,000 as the magic number, with the unemployment rate ticking up slightly to 9.1 per cent. Via Bloomberg:
Jobs and oil: investors will need the ocular dexterity of Marty Feldman to keep a close eye on Friday’s two prime market catalysts, the FT’s global market overview reports. The always eagerly anticipated US payrolls numbers are set to provide the day’s crucial data point. They are due for release at 1330 GMT and consensus is for an increase of 185,000, according to Reuters. But throughout the global session, investors will also be wary of the oil price — now back above $115 a barrel — which will doubtless be driven by reports of fighting in Libya and civil unrest elsewhere in the region, with Friday usually the day when tensions are at their height. For now, though, the mood was upbeat, with the FTSE All-World index up 0.3 per cent and US stock futures marginally firmer. This was a carry-over from Thursday, when better-than-expected US data — and some handy geopolitical risk amnesia — helped spur a 1.7 per cent rally on Wall Street.
Nonfarm payrolls likely grew by 145,000 in January, following December’s 103,000 gain — but recent snowstorms may throw the figures and jobless rates probably increased, according to Reuters’ survey of economists. The edging up of the jobless rate to 9.5 per cent from 9.4 per cent would do little to dissuade the Federal Reserve from ending quantitative easing too early. Bloomberg’s collation of forecasts ranges from a 5,000 decrease to a gain of 230,000.
According to Reuters, trading in German Bund futures was halted for two minutes on Friday after US December non-farm payrolls sent price volatility spiking:
Why trading machines don’t like news releases – FT Alphaville