Markets Live: Thursday, 22nd September, 2016

Live markets commentary from 

Brace yourself, Peckham

Today in online urban culture dispatches Bloomberg flashes:


 Read more

“How do I become a whistleblower[?]”

Anyone who hasn’t read the Securities and Exchange Commission’s complaint against Leon Cooperman and his hedge funds should do so ASAP, because it is a heckuva story.

Here’s a quick summary of the allegations, which Cooperman and his funds categorically deny: Read more

Has the BoJ signalled the end of QE as we know it?

That is, by diluting if not outright abandoning the quantitative/ balance sheet expansion aspect of its policy with a move to QQE with yield control has the BoJ admitted that the current stage of central bank action is nearing its limits?

Citi’s Buiter et al seem to think so: Read more

FT Opening Quote: Lloyd’s profits up

Profits up at Lloyds,Daintith heads to Rolls-Royce, Randgold soars: FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here.  Read more

Further reading


– Bernanke and Beckworth on the BoJ’s new yield control policy.

– Branko Milanovic on how income inequality is cyclical.

– Lorcan on Target2, redux.

– Tony Yates burning through RSI to Tweet-critique Romer.

– How to hide it, back inside the offshore wealth management world.

– And persuasion in a post truth world. Read more

FirstFT – Stage set for US rate rise, the secret world of wealth managers and the problem with being declared dead

Dissenting central bank trio votes for an immediate lift Read more

Doubling up on Mars

A cryptic Tweet from Iron-Man Elon Musk stating “Turns out MCT can go well beyond Mars, so will need a new name…” delighted the tech/science internet community when it was posted on Sept 17. Read more

Tech unicorn director in tax fraud trial

If you picked up the papers this morning you might have seen an interesting story about “a renowned conservationist” and an alleged £60m tax fraud. Here’s part of The Times’ take on it:

A renowned conservationist took part in a £60 million tax fraud marketed as a means of tackling climate change, a court was told yesterday. Read more

Macro Live, Yellen presser edition starting at 1:55pm EST

The Fed is expected not to raise rates at the conclusion of Wednesday’s meeting, but that doesn’t mean the FOMC statement or the subsequent presser will be uneventful.

On the table are a change in the trajectory of future rate hikes, a signal that the next hike is very likely in November or December of this year, and changes to the Fed’s estimates for US growth. Read more

Markets Live: Wednesday, 21st September, 2016

Live markets commentary from 

Millions cheated by binary reporting scam

Like the movement of a currency in 30 seconds time, The Mail’s editorial stance on binary-option trading is impossible to predict. Read more

Japanese banks apparently like a policy aimed at helping them out

Shocking, we know.

Screen Shot 2016-09-21 at 11.18.55 AM Read more

FT Opening Quote: Diageo growth on target

Diageo growth on target, Smiles at Shepherd Neame, Indian summer blues at Bonmarché. FT Opening Quote is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here. Read more

Further reading


– Kuroda’s conundrum

– The BoE on the unintended consequences of higher capital requirements

– Tyler Cowen on Dodd-Frank

– And Tim Duy on how the dots outlived their usefulness when they signaled a pace of policy tightening that never happened  Read more

FirstFT – Wells Fargo chief under fire, the art of mirroring in business and the pitfalls of activity trackers

Elizabeth Warren tells John Stumpf he should be ‘criminally investigated’ over phantom accounts Read more

Guest post: Small-cap trading revamp is no more than a costly distraction

The US equity market is about to start a two-year programme testing changes for small-cap equity trading. This guest post from Richard Johnson, a market-structure and technology strategist with Greenwich Associates, argues that the costs of the programme may outweigh the benefits.

_____ Read more

Your comprehensive guide to the all new ‘Upstairs Downstairs’ London property market

Three months down the line, enough time has passed to properly assess the impact of Brexit on the London property market. Read more

Markets Live: Tuesday, 20th September, 2016

Live markets commentary from 

Inquiring minds want to know: Can the BoJ control the yield curve?

It’s almost BoJ comprehensive assessment time with Kuroda’s massive JGB purchases and NIRP policy standing naked beneath the spotlights awaiting judgement from their own creators.

Part of that judgment involves the pain that a NIRP and QQE induced flattening of the yield curve has wrought on financials. Thus, as we’ve talked about already, part of the recommended remedy might involve some sort of Japanese Operation Twist to steepen said yield curve and help out said financials.

Of course, the range of things the BoJ can actually do is large and the subject of predicable disagreement. So before we get to the yield curve question, here’s some summary for those who want it. Those who don’t can skip down to below the breaks. Read more

Ve Interactive: Part Two

Technology startups aren’t known for their humility, but British unicorn Ve Interactive seems to have particularly ambitious forecasting.

In January 2015, the company confidently predicted close to a billion pounds of sales in 2016, along with an impressive £866m of profit, according to an investor document seen by FT Alphaville. Read more

FT Opening Quote: Emma Walmsley to head GSK

Emma Walmsley to head GSK, Sports Direct changes probe and Theresa May in NYC. FT Opening Quote, with commentary by City Editor Jonathan Guthrie, is your early Square Mile briefing. You can sign up for the full newsletter here. Read more

Further reading

“To say that most of the jobs we expect people to do today make full use of their potential is a vile slander, even if we are only measuring potential by the narrow standards of GDP” … Overcapacity, productivity and central bank largesse … Any paper that can say things like “our findings contradict the factional purge view” is ok by us … Love, friendship and public accounting don’t mix … Of Nordvig’s new shop … “‘Big Short’ guru tells whiny bankers to shut up” …  Read more

FirstFT – New York bomb suspect arrested, Theresa May’s extended honeymoon and the best emotional state to make decisions

Sign up to receive FirstFT by email here

US police on Monday arrested Ahmad Khan Rahami in connection with bombings in the New York area over the weekend after a shootout that left the suspect injured. Mr Rahami, a US citizen who was born in Afghanistan, had been wanted for questioning concerning the Saturday night explosion in Manhattan that wounded 29 people, as well as a blast on Saturday morning in the New Jersey shore community of Seaside Park. Read more

What happens when floating-rate coupons sink below zero?

The short answer: Both bondholders and issuers could be in an awkward spot.

Many corporate bonds have “floors” in place, which means their coupon payments can’t go below zero. But in a recent note, S&P Global Market Intelligence calls attention to a host of floating-rate securities that don’t have coupon floors. Read more

Ski chalets, millennials and Brexit

Knight Frank’s annual ski property review is out. The good news for the chalet market is… Brits don’t have that much of an influence on chalet prices these days, so Brexit’s been no problem so far. Read more

P2P lending rediscovers balance sheet magic

Here’s a snippet from the latest annual accounts of Ratesetter, one of the UK’s top three “peer-to-peer” lenders, and shows the startup taking £2m of risk on to its own balance sheet in order to fund a borrower in “financial difficulty”.

 Read more

How do you solve a problem like RTGS moral hazard?

With blockchain distributed ledger technology (DLT) of course.

The good news is that with the release of its new consultation paper on Friday titled A new RTGS service for the United Kingdom: safeguarding stability, enabling innovation, the BoE finally seems to be acknowledging that its real-time gross clearing system (RTGS) is far from perfect and does need overhauling.

But before we get to the role DLTs may play in that overhaul, some background on RTGS first. Read more

Markets Live: Monday, 19th September, 2016

Live markets commentary from 

One of these is not like the others, the BIS on China edition

 Read more