How long can this go on? (Click to enlarge.)
For Spain’s balance of payments, Credit Suisse has pulled the numbers together through to the end of April for the semi-detailed breakdown of investor type and to end-May for the Target2 figure.
The result is not very pretty. Since the middle of last year, this has been a one-way show, with capital leaving Spain apace. Capital inflows have been almost non-existent. Indeed, Yiagos Alexopoulos at CS reckons outlflows are currently running at an annualised rate of 50 per cent of GDP.
The analyst notes that the clear trend of foreign investors yanking money from Spain has been joined by evidence of domestic investors moving assets abroad. If that accelerates from here, things could get disorderly…
More on this in the Long Room along with a similar set of charts on Italy.