About that whole “sell in May thing” | FT Alphaville

About that whole “sell in May thing”

From Alan Ruskin at Deutsche Bank (with our emphasis):

Last year, saw one of the most dramatic deteriorations in US surprise indices, which has encouraged the mythology that spring has historically started a spate of surprising data weakness into the summer, consistent with the ‘sell in May and go away’ maxim. In fact, 2011 was the only year in the last 10, when US data surprise index did not  change in the direction of more positive surprises (see chart below).  The ‘seasonal’ shift in US data surprises for the better in May, is a more consistent than for any other month over the last 10 years. The ISM upside surprise, should then be regarded as befitting of the historic pattern of upside rather than downside surprises in May.

Now, if it would just stop raining in London.

Related links:
US equity bulls dismiss May jitters – FT
U.S. Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace in a Year – Bloomberg