Chinese New Year and the BDI | FT Alphaville

Chinese New Year and the BDI

Should you be worried about the Baltic Dry Index’s recent sharp selloff? Or should you be more worried about developments in China?

We bring this up because there is apparently somewhat of an après-Chinese New Year effect when it comes to the Baltic Dry Index. And since the Chinese New Year fell early this year, the BDI’s usual post New Year pick-me-up should be just around the corner.

As Icap’s shipping analytics team pointed out on Tuesday:

Chinese New Year was on January 23 this year, the earliest since 2004. If history has anything to tell us, there is such a thing as a post-New Year boost when it comes to the dry freight market, and it may yet be on its way. The improvement in the BDI normally seen in March seems to be a manifestation of the Chinese New Year Effect – which means that this year February may be the month in which we see a lift from current low earnings.

To wit, the following chart:

That said, it does seem that the pick-me-up is a little delayed this year even after accounting for the early New Year.

Related links:
The most bearish chart in the world today – Money Week
Explaining the Baltic Dry sell-off – FT Alphaville