Fundamentally speaking… | FT Alphaville

Fundamentally speaking…

From Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix on Wednesday:

While crude oil futures continue to be supported by the Iranium premium, the products are not following and the light-end cracks are suffering further. The Naphtha and RBOB cracks to Brent are going as we expected deeper into negative territory and the pressure is now also coming to the European Distillates physical premiums. This is something to follow closely given that the refining margins are currently supported only by the Distillate and Fuel Oil crack. ICE Gasoil expires tomorrow and the backwardation is going through the roof but with a very slow start to winter we have to monitor the weakening trend in the physical premiums. NYMEX Heating Oil is starting to enter contango territory.

In other words, if not for fuel oil or fresh Iran jitters… what’s left to hold up the energy complex?

Related links:
Asia Fuel Oil-Timespreads, cash diff ease – Reuters
I thought I saw a backwardation
– FT Alphaville