The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis has ventured an update to Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff’s ‘This Time it’s Different‘, the seminal work on financial crises of the past – and their related analysis on the aftermath of financial crises.
The OOEA* uses both updated and revised data and, mostly, confirm that while things have of course gotten worse, they’re still inside the historical norms. For example, equity price declines:
Indeed, for most of the key measures used by Reinhart and Rogoff, the OOEA finds newer data only reconfirms the US is experiencing a “garden variety” of financial crisis, as the original works indicated.
The summary of the new data comes out like this:
However… there’s one area in that list in which the current US appears to be significantly better than the crises past: unemployment.
While it looks terrible in the context of past US recessions…
So far, at least, the US has done reasonably well in terms of unemployment, when compared to global precedents:
It probably won’t be much comfort to anyone in these economic times, but interesting, nonetheless.
(H/T Free Exchange. )
This time is different – an update – Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (PDF)
Consumption conundrums continued – FT Alphaville
In the long run, we are all just fine. Maybe – FT Alphaville