US housing double-dip, continued | FT Alphaville

US housing double-dip, continued

The Case-Shiller housing numbers for November are out and — unsurprisingly — they show another steep monthly decline:

Data through November 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to what was reported for October 2010. The 10-City Composite was down 0.4% and the 20-City Composite fell 1.6% from their November 2009 levels. Home prices fell in 19 of 20 MSAs and both Composites in November from their October levels.

Eight of the 20 cities in the index actually reached post-recession lows.

Something to keep in mind is that this index is a moving average of the three months through November, which means it is capturing activity in September and October, before it was obvious that the US recovery was finally accelerating. And there is an even bigger lag involved, as the data recorded even in these months are from home sales that closed about a month or two prior. (See this helpful Free Exchange post for further explanation.)

That’s not a reason for optimism — there continue to be a number of forces pushing for a continued decline — but it is still far from clear that the most pessimistic forecasts for 2011 will be proved right.

Related link:
Shadow inventory still growing – FT Alphaville
The economic impact of the foreclosure slowdown – FT Alphaville
The slow death of Hamp, the summer of delinquencies – FT Alphaville